Month: June 2012

Why Concessions, Contagion & Collapse Are Still On The Cards In Europe

From Greek election elation to Spanish rescue concerns; a clear road to recovery has remained elusive. Greece continues to gamble with their euro membership with the misguided belief that they can soften demands for austerity, without threatening their bailout. Instead, it is the lack of a sufficient firewall, rather than a commitment to Greece remaining within the eurozone, which stands in the way of an exit. When banks are supported and other countries protected from a fallout, bailout payments to Greece and their membership within the eurozone could come to an end. Withdrawals from Greek banks could force the issue even earlier, as the desire to stay in the euro is offset with capital flows betting against it. For markets, it is clarity over the outlook going forward that is required for investor confidence and upward market momentum to return. We are not there yet, but time is running out.

Watch a 5 minute clip: Breaking the news about the outlook for Europe post Greek election

Greece Gambles With € Membership

New Democracy’s win in the Greek elections was a victory of fear over anger. Outrage over the harsh austerity terms that have pushed the country into a 5th year of recession was outweighed by the fear of an exit from the euro. Protest against the tough spending cuts and tax increases was overshadowed by alarm at potential isolation and banking collapse, if these measures were to be rejected and bailout funds halted. Thus, New Democracy, perceived as the ‘pro-euro’ party and as such the investors’ choice, won.

Crucially, however, although less willing to gamble their euro membership and expressing a commitment to staying in the eurozone, New Democracy also want to renegotiate the bailout terms. Dangerously, they believe it is possible to soften demands for austerity, without threatening their bailout. As a party seen as responsible for the crisis in the first place, their track record does not inspire confidence.

Odds Against Greece If Firewalls Strengthened

The Spanish rescue exacerbated the problem. Offering Spain a bailout without stringent terms was seen as a desperate move by European leaders, bending to pressure from a fear of further turmoil. Such a sign of perceived ‘weakness’ gave Greek leaders the confidence to believe their demands could likewise be met and the need for harsh austerity no longer mandatory.

This is misplaced. The possibility of a Greek exit is being discussed far more freely by European politicians. It is the lack of a sufficient firewall, rather than a continued resilient commitment to Greece remaining within the eurozone, which stands in the ways. This is especially the case while Greece’s membership continues to threaten the existence of the eurozone as a whole. When there are sufficient rescue funds in place to support the banks and protect other countries from the fallout, bailout payments to Greece and their membership within the eurozone could come to an end.

Depositors Could Dictate Greece’s Fate

With depositors withdrawing over €500m each day from Greek banks, decisions over the country’s future may be decided even sooner. European company exits have also gathered steam. Carrefour, Europe’s biggest retailer, has cut their losses and sold out of Greece. As sources of support dry up, the country stands on far shakier grounds. Voters may have moved in one direction but depositors have moved in another. A desire to stay in the euro offset with capital flows betting against it. As Bill Gross, founder and co-CIO of Pimco, said on CNBC’s Street Signs Greece’s fate will be decided not at the ballot box but at the ATM”.

For markets, it is clarity over the outlook going forward that is required for investor confidence and upward market momentum to return. We are not there yet, but time is running out.

To note: Conviction for an exit from the euro has grown among The Investment Insight readers. From 40% of readers a month ago, to 72% on the latest poll (below), the belief that an exit is inevitable is building….

Europe – why unity is the only way to survive…

As investors price into the markets only two options for Europe, politicians feel the pressure to avoid a break-up of the monetary union as we know and instead embark on the second scenario, full scale fiscal unity. European countries must share their budgets to share their burdens; fully unite or expect exits; go hard or go home. A Banking Union would form part of this strategy but would it be blinkered to significant risks? Nevertheless, caution can cloud ones vision and maintaining holdings in good quality companies, rather than raising cash levels is preferable. Progress is moving in the right direction and when confidence returns, so could market momentum. 

Click here to watch this being fiercely debated in a short clip on CNBC

A European Banking Union – an essential but flawed strategy  

Ever since the fall of Lehman Brothers and the start of the ‘credit crisis’, a call for greater control over the banks has been hotly debated. Challenged with rising regulatory costs and lower trading volumes margins are being squeezed. Balance sheets are predicted to shrink by at least €1.5tn by the end of next year, even before taking account of an effect of a possible Greek exit.

A proposal that has won support in France is for a European Banking Union. This would involve a single regulator to oversee banks across Europe. Furthermore, it includes an EU-wide deposit guarantee scheme to protect savers in the event of a bank collapse. The European Central Bank has been hailed as the most appropriate candidate as supervisor, explicitly focusing the oversight to the euro area as opposed to the full European Union. This allays one of the UK’s concerns but reservations remain.

A mockery of the original mandate?

Firstly, it may make a mockery of the ECB’s original mandate. Originally tasked with the challenge of controlling inflation, critics maintain this new role would conflict and weaken their ability to do so.  Any move to print money (increasing the amount in circulation, reducing its value meaning more is required to make purchases), could increase inflation instead of maintain price level stability.

A ‘blinkered’ approach?

Secondly, focusing on only part of the problem is not a full solution. A supervisory body overseeing the banks will focus on the largest financial institutions but miss the risks stored up lower down the food chain. The most recent ‘crisis’ was kicked off by Bankia, Spain’s largest savings bank, suffering solvency issues. However, it was formed from 7 already troubled smaller banks and therefore the risks they posed would have gone unnoticed. Oversight is certainly warranted, but is the horse wearing blinkers?

Fiscal unity first

Finally, this is not a first step. Before such a move is considered, fiscal consolidation is required. To provide backing to support banks, greater control over national budgets is needed. Being so heavily affected by the economy in which they are located, unity must start from the top down. A ‘two speed’ Europe with pockets of growth versus widespread recession; a need for interest rate increases opposing desperation for further easing; and budget surpluses contrasting deficits highlighting the instability. European countries must share their budgets to share their burdens, fully unite or expect exits, go hard or go home.

But beware of de-risking

Caution can cloud ones vision and currently cash is not king. As prices rise faster than cash can appreciate in most savings accounts, the value of money is being eroded. Boosting cash levels is not prudent. Instead, maintaining a holding in good quality companies, with confidence they will grow in value over the long run, makes more sense. Progress is moving in the right direction and when confidence returns, so could market momentum.