Emerging Markets

What the world’s largest election means for you and your money.. in less than 90 seconds

WHAT’S GOING ON?

The results of the world’s largest election will be announced on Friday, and while it has been profitable to ‘buy on the rumour’, it may already be time to ‘sell on the news’. (more…)

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Why Global Markets Could Be Derailed by the Ukraine

Turmoil in Emerging Markets hit investor confidence in January and, after a stellar February, the crisis in the Ukraine could lead to profit taking this month. Indeed, volatility spiked to a similar level and the S&P came off its all-time-high on Friday as fears started to set in.

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Russian Investment Opportunities: The Drivers and the Hidden Gems

From the world’s best performing index in the first three months of this year, to a laggard this quarter, the Russian index has offered dramatic returns as well as downside risk. What has driven investor sentiment and what are many investors missing?

The World Leader Slips to World Laggard

Russia’s RTS Index was the world’s best performing index in the first three months of this year but has now fallen by around 11% in value so far this quarter (Source: Bloomberg). Moves in this market are often attributed to sentiment over the oil price due to the significant revenues generated by the country exporting this commodity. Therefore speculation over economic growth (read: oil demand) is highly influential. This year has been no different. Turmoil in the Middle East can be attributed as one of the main drivers of a strong rally in oil in the first quarter and concerns over economic growth has caused a reversal since that time. However, is this too simplistic a view and aren’t there other factors to which an investor in Russia should be paying attention?

Source: Bloomberg. Russian RTS Index (white) vs. MSCI World Index (orange) - all $.

Beyond Oil

It is clear to see why investors play so much emphasis on the oil price as a dictator of Russia’s financial health. Supplying some 11.4% of the world’s oil supply last year, Russia is the “biggest single source outside the opec cartel”. Although official figures calculate its contribution to Russia’s GDP at 9%, it is important to be aware that speculation over tax avoidance suggests the value may be nearer to 25%. Nevertheless, what is often overlooked is the specific oil price factored into their budget. For this year, a price above $75/barrel will produce a deficit reduction. With Brent currently standing at $115/barrel, a fall in the Russian Index in reaction to a fall in the oil price to anything above $75/barrel may be missing the point.

Boosting Ties with Iraq

With Russian oil fields maturing and production growth resting heavily on foreign investment, the country is looking externally for new sources. Iraq offers potential opportunities and TNK-BP, Russia’s 3rd largest oil producer and BP Plc’s 50-50 joint venture, isn’t holding back. The relationship between the two countries dates back many years and in 2008 Russia wrote off most of their $12.9bn debt mainly generated pre-gulf war from the Saddam Hussein government purchases of Soviet weapons. Interestingly, last October the Russian President, Dmitry Medvedev announced his country was ready to strengthen co-operation with Iraq, the same month TNK-BP gained the right to bid for 3 natural gas areas in the region.

Mediating the Exit of Qaddafi

Within the political arena, Russia has been just as active. In addition to fighting for a stronger developing market influence at the IMF, Russia has offered its services to facilitate the exit of Qaddafi from rule in Libya. This is the first time it has shown support for the NATO-led military campaign after abstaining from UN Security council vote in March which authorised the intervention and accusing NATO of violating the resolution by backing anti-Qaddafi rebels and causing civilian casualties from air raids. Due to the belief that Qaddafi has “forfeited legitimacy”, they are willing to negotiate his fate with members of his entourage. Evidence of the country’s powerful network, the value of their political clout has been highlighted.

Driving the Agriculture Market

Back to commodities but from a different angle, the Russian weather is an influencer to watch for investing in the agriculture markets. Fine weather has prompted an upward revision of Russian grain production with the Federal Hydrometerological Center reporting the warmer weather has improved the prospect for crops. This has led to speculation that Russia’s ban on grain exports may be lifted on 1 July. Wheat future prices saw double digit losses.

The Chinese Buyer

One particular potential buyer of Russia’s resources is China, state media reported last Monday. China Investment Corp (CIC), the country’s $300bn sovereign wealth fund, was set up in 2007 to invest some of the country’s massive foreign exchange reserves. With the world’s largest foreign capital resource, at $3.0tn, they are keen to find better sources of return and commodities to fuel their rapid economic growth.

G-8 Bullishness Boosting Appetite for Risk

Despite these many factors which may influence Russia’s outlook, financially, economically and politically; its index continues to exhibit a strong correlation to the oil price. This week we’ve seen oil (and Russian equities) respond positively to the declaration by the Group of Eight that the global recovery is strengthening.

Investment Insight

Nevertheless, to differentiate between short-term over-reaction and more logical fundamental moves, being aware of all the issues will equip you with the insight to navigate this volatile but potentially profitable market.

IMF Revelations: The End of European Dominance & The Rise of Emerging Markets?

As “super-injunctions” are labelled “pointless” by the rise of ‘new’ social media sites, the world seems a smaller place for those wanting to hide potential transgressions.  Indeed, such accusations can have broad ramifications as the head of the International Monetary Fund this week steps down from his leadership position. Could this trigger the end of European dominance at the IMF and even pave the way for Emerging Market leaders to acquire a more appropriate size of the power pie?

Jurisdiction Arbitrage: The Super-Injunction Flaw

Last week, an anonymous twitter user exploited a ‘jurisdiction arbitrage’ to name celebrities whose identities are being protected by a series of ‘gagging-orders’. The Twitter site is based in the US and therefore “outside the jurisdiction of the British courts”. Furthermore, not only would the user himself be “difficult to trace” but the number of other users who forwarded on the names and could be charged represented a “mass defiance” and “unlikely” any of them would be pursued. Therefore potential wrong-doers can, for the moment at least, be named and shamed in some form of media. Just how dangerous can these revelations be?

Revelations at The IMF

This week legalities are once again in the headlines as Dominique Strauss-Kahn, (now the former) head of the International Monetary Fund, stands accused of politically damaging indiscretions. Regardless of the outcome of the case, the political impact has been made and focus is on identifying his potential successor.

The European Bias

Historically the IMF Managing Director has been European and the World Bank President American but nowhere in the “Articles of Agreement’ is this mentioned. So where did this bias come from? It dates back to the Bretton Woods conference, where the fund was formed and this informal agreement struck. In the aftermath of World War II, European economic stability played a large part in the health of the world’s economy and voting power reflected the balance of power. The US has a 16.7% share, Germany 5.9% and the UK & France 4.9% each; leaving the ‘door open’ for ‘behind the scenes’ negotiations. Unsurprisingly, since this time, there have been 10 Managing Directors, all of them European.

Flaws of a European Successor

Proponents of a continuation of European dominance point to the IMF’s crucial role in stemming the European Sovereign Debt crisis. A German government spokesman, Christoph Steegmans, maintains that the leader needs to understand “Europe’s particularities”. Interesting then that there has been no talk of electing an official from the Middle East as Egypt requests a $4bn loan to ‘fill its budget gap’. With all the turmoil, doesn’t a leader need to understand the ‘particularities’ of this region too? Instead, focus is on German candidates (including Axel Weber, the former head of the Central Bank who recently withdrew from the race to succeed Trichet as head of the ECB). A favourite amongst pundits is French finance Minister Christine Lagarde. Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney has even been given odds of 10-to-1 by a British bookmaker. Gordon Brown’s name has even been thrown into the ring but was quickly opposed by our PM Cameron due to the record budget deficit which continued to build during his tenure. Here lies the crux of the issue, since the EU and ECB have yet to solve the debt crisis, is it time for someone else to have a go?

Opportunity for Developing Markets

The economic balance of power is changing. China has overtaken Japan as the second largest economy and it has been argued that it will surpass the US’s share of global GDP in a decade. Back in 1973, the developing nations asserted more of their power as a group led by Indonesia and Iran vetoed the nomination of a Dutch candidate (seen as too closely aligned to the interests of wealthy nations). With this in mind, candidates from South Africa, Turkey, Singapore, Indonesia, Mexico and a Chinese official who advises the IMF already have been mentioned in the press. Brazil too has contributed to the discussion, as their Finance Minister argues for a “new criteria”. Indeed changes to IMF governance were decided in 2008 and last year, shifting 5.3% of the voting share to emerging markets. Although nothing has yet taken effect. However, with the increased contribution of funding coming from these regions and the negativity within these countries expressed against too much focus on the developed world, change is warranted.

Investment Conclusion

As ever, economic issues can often lie opposed to equity market movement. But changes (or continuation) of dominance could affect short-term sentiment for various country’s financial markets. Exploit any over-reaction in the short-term whilst remaining focused on quality in the longer-term. The shift of economic power is well underway, let’s see if the political powers play catch up….

Currency Wars – What We Can Learn From Central Banks About Managing Our Wealth

Follow this link to read the article, as published in The Huffington Post.

What We Can Learn From Central Banks About Managing Our Wealth

Emerging Markets – Crucial Points to be Aware of When Investing in the “Region”

What Investor Excitement Is Ignoring….

Inflation is like sin; every government denounces it and every government practices it – Frederick Leith-Ross

One of the most interesting market moves in 2010 was the significant outperformance of US equities over Chinese, despite far weaker GDP growth numbers. What many missed is the fact that it is not absolute values but relative figures / surprises which move markets. With this in mind, is it worrying that the consensus for China’s long term earnings growth is forecasted at 18%? Not much room is left for upside surprises, but there’s plenty of space for disappointment!

Source: "The Surprising truth about Investing in the BRICs" on Nicholas Vardy's The Global Guru, http://www.theglobalguru.com/article.php?id=340&offer=GURU001.

Therefore, it is important to be aware of the issues and risks associated with the region to be able to decide not only what to invest in but how to size the investment accordingly, inline with risk / return targets. As expressed above, it is crucial to judge what you believe is already priced into the markets and what pose as upside or downside potential.

Short-Term EM Risks

Short-term cyclical factors can overshadow long-term structural trends

INFLATION: the index used to calculate inflation in EM has double the exposure to food prices than in the G10 (developed countries). Using the price of wheat as an example – an all time high was reached at the beginning of this month, highlighting the magnified pressure felt in the region which may spook investors. From another angle, fiscal policy in China led to a 30% growth in the money supply (M2) in 2009, increased by almost as much again last year, stoking inflationary fears (since with more money around, it becomes worth less and more of it is required to buy goods i.e. goods become more expensive)

ALLOCATIONS: a record percentage of portfolio managers are overweight Emerging Market equities. The combined net assets of the two largest EM ETFs are now above that for the S&P 500, despite the US equity market being ~4 times the size of the investable EM universe.

Long-Term EM Risks

Long-term demographics may negatively affect the working population

AGE TRENDS: the biggest drop in the young working age population is “set to take place in China,” a result of its one-child policy.

ACCESS TO EDUCATION: Of the top 50 universities, only 3 are based in emerging market countries and the highest stay rate is among Chinese students. This means that in order to get a top quality education, the youth of Emerging Markets may have to study abroad and if they do so, may end up staying, greatly limiting the young, well-educated working class of their homeland.

EM Stock Risks

Do due diligence on the companies you pick – you may not be getting the exposure you want

EXPOSURE: just 14% of EM market cap is represented by domestic-facing sectors (i.e. not all EM stocks give investors exposure to the rise of the Consumer and the “Domestic Demand” growth story, a main reason for investment)

GOVERNMENT INTERVENTION: Within the EM stock markets, government ownership of companies is significant. For the Chinese market, 67% of its market cap is government owned (35% in Russia, 29% in India and 14% in Brazil). Putting this in context, in the US, at the height of the financial crisis, government ownership was about 3.7% of market cap. The importance of this should not be underestimated. It means that at times, within EM, a majority government owned entity may not be acting entirely in the interests of the investors.

STOCK EXAMPLE: Petrobras (PBR):  Brazilian government and its affiliates own about 64% of common voting shares. The offering documents state that “the government, as our principal shareholder, has and may pursue in the future, certain of its macroeconomic and social objectives through us.”

INVESTMENT INSIGHT

Therefore, in conclusion: Be aware –

Short-term cyclical factors can overshadow long-term structural trends

Long-term demographics may negatively affect the EM working population

Do due diligence on the companies you pick – you may not be getting the exposure you want