Cash

Why Europe Is Doing The ‘Ice Bucket Challenge’ With A Glass Of Water

‘Grand’ gestures with minimal effects, Europe is doing the ‘Ice Bucket Challenge’ with a glass of water. Measures won’t measure up to much. Little movement in interest rates, not enough assets to buy and ultimately – you can put out as many cream cakes as you’d like, but if people aren’t hungry, they aren’t going to eat. The pressure is rising and more is needed. Europe has become a ‘binary trade’, and it is important to invest in those set to benefit regardless.

(Click on the image below for a quick video clip summary)

cnbc FMHR Sept 2014

2 Measures That Won’t Measure Up To Much… (more…)

Don’t Be Fooled: Why A New Stock Market High Does Not Guarantee Growth

Published in CityA.M.

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The global recovery does not fully account for the rise in markets, and the growth that would justify these elevated price levels is not guaranteed. (more…)

5 Ways To Check You’re Not Late To The Stock Market Party

The room’s getting crowded, the party’s been going on a while but more people could arrive. Just beware fair weather friends and a sign it could be time to think about leaving…

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Europe – Lacking a Long-Term Solution

Over the last few days we have seen a tremendous amount of volatility in the markets, epitomising the lack of clarity with which many investors have struggled. The contagion continues to spread as we hear rumours of a possible downgrade of French government debt although it is far more likely to occur for Italy first. Fundamentally, there is a lack of a long-term solution and the knee-jerk reaction by some EU countries to ban short selling not only misses the point, it may negatively impact the very stocks it is trying to protect. So as we see movement to safe havens, we also see room for opportunistic buying – as long as you invest with those with strong balance sheets unlikely to be hit in future earnings downgrades and have a long enough time horizon to withstand the volatility.

Italy and France to be downgraded? The Contagion Continues to Spread

The markets are already betting for the ratings agencies to downgrade France’s debt with credit default swap spreads widening to double their level at the beginning of July. A rising expense to insure against default implies the market believes it to be more likely. However, Italy is the more likely downgrade candidate in the short-term. The reasons given behind Portugal’s downgrade a few months back apply equally to Italy – an unsustainable debt burden (Italy has the third largest in the word at €1.8tn) and a low likelihood of being able to repay these obligations (as it dips back into recession). The European Financial Stability Fund is losing its credibility since even its increase to €440bn is not enough to cover future potential bailouts and would need to amount to at least €2tn. The crux of the problem, as I’ve iterated before, is that you can’t solve the problem of debt with debt and austerity does not foster growth. Instead debt burdens are increasing at a faster rate than GDP growth in many western economies so the situation is only getting worse.

Outlook for banks: Headwinds for banks remain

European banks remain highly correlated to the future of the periphery. German banks, for example, have exposure to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain) amounting to more than 18% of German GDP. Commerzbank revealed that a €760m write-down for Greek debt holdings wiped out their entire Q2 earnings. That’s before we look at France who have an even higher exposure and here in the UK, our banks have nearly £100bn exposed to struggling economies. Furthermore, these banks need to refinance maturing debt (at a rate of €5.4tn over the next 24 months) at higher rates and with demand shrinking.

Will the ban on short-selling help? No, it misses the point

The markets are concerned with government fiscal credibility not its regulatory might. Instead, the ban could increase volatility and negatively impact the very stocks it is trying to protect. ‘Shorting’ was acknowledged by the Committee for European Securities Regulators as beneficial for “price discovery, liquidity and risk management” just last year, so we may well see higher volatility than we would have without. Secondly, it limits fund ability to bet on financials going up. Hedge funds use shorts to remove market risk, buying shares in one bank and borrowing and selling shares in another. If they are forced to close these ‘borrowed’ positions, they will have to sell the other bank shares they have bought outright, causing further selling pressure and price falls. Most interesting was the timing of the implementation, just before an announcement was made that the Greek economy shrank by 7% in Q2 – fuelling fears the ban was needed since there’s more bad news to come.

How to trade these markets: Movement to safe haven offering opportunities

So how can you invest in these markets? A possible support to the stock markets is the ‘search for yield’. Sitting on cash can’t be satisfying for long, with rates as low as they are, and the dividend yield on the Eurostoxx is now double the 10 year German ‘bund’ yield. This means that even if markets go sideways, the return generated from holding European stocks could be more attractive than either if the other options. In addition, valuations are looking reasonable, at a near 8x forward earnings. Therefore we may see flows returning to the markets. However, be warned, we are starting to see earnings downgrades and volatility may remain. Therefore invest in companies with strong balance sheets and maintain a medium to longer-term time horizon.

Opportunities for Careful Investors

THE current financial climate is making it harder to decipher where investors are going to find returns. The rates on holding cash are low, bond yields in general have narrowed substantially and there is much uncertainty on the outlook for the stock market. In addition, with macro risks on our minds and the sovereign debt crisis raising concerns, risk aversion is on the rise. In this environment, investing in something tangible that could provide a potentially uncorrelated return is attractive. Nevertheless, there has been a vast difference in returns from various investments in this market. Therefore, it will pay to be particular.

There has been a stark divergence of fortunes between property prices inside and outside of London. Location within or access to the city is a price-setter. Fundamentally, prime assets in attractive sectors should see a level of demand providing a floor on prices. Foreign investors have been quoted as spending £3.7bn per annum for London residences, due to the inviting exchange rate, national ties, as well as in some case the greater political stability that our city can offer. The emergence of an appetite for second homes has created demand in another segment of property investing, where the right location will again be crucial.

Students are another opportunity. Regional student housing is the UK’s best performing sector with around a 15 per cent ROI last year thanks to a shortage of suitable one-bed apartments. Broadly speaking, this is a “buy-to-let” approach. Rental rates are at all-time highs and the short-let market is booming. It is predicted that for the Olympics, rates will increase six-fold.

Therefore, depending on your strategy, timing may also be crucial. To play the school or student market, the run up to September is a key window of opportunity. The challenge is in finding the investments that fit your aspirations, and putting your plan into action at the right time. In a desired area, properties can attract multiple buyers, making this task tougher.

Nevertheless, with inflation one of the biggest threats to the market currently, implementing the right strategy and picking the right property will help provide some protection.

This article was featured in CityAM.

How to Invest in These Markets

Click HERE to see Gemma Godfrey on CNBC\’s European Closing Bell

Gemma Godfrey, Chairman of the Investment Committee and Head of Research at Credo Capital, and John Authers of the Financial Times on CNBC’s European Closing Bell. Discussing how you should invest your money.

Join Guy Johnson and Louisa Bojesen for a fast-paced, dynamic wrap up to the trading day. “European Closing Bell” gives an in-depth analysis of the day’s market action and includes expert analysis from the major players in the European business and financial world.