contagion

Investors are calling this risk “Lehman Squared”

As Eurozone turmoil resurfaces, Gemma Godfrey takes you through the under the radar risks and how to trade them.

The risk of Greece leaving the Euro is looming large over markets as a ‘snap’ election nears on Jan 25th. Threatening to reverse the austerity measures (spending cuts etc) required for bailout funds and remaining in the Eurozone, Syriza looks likely to lead any coalition government, if it does not win outright.

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From Rome With Love? The 3 Issues To Watch For Italy & Global Markets

This article made the Front Page of the Huffington Post Business

Political uncertainty in Italy could impact global markets, but provide a “fantastic buying opportunity.”

cnbc squawk

Like Jennifer Lawrence’s fall at the Oscars, unexpected but a chance to shine ‘comedically‘, Italy’s elections have shocked investors but provided attractive entry points to strong international firms, insulated from domestic woes (as well as offer up some funny one-liners from candidates). The possible loss of eagerly anticipated labour reforms, financial restrictions and market contagion provide shorter term sources of turmoil. However, existing reforms are likely to continue, market retrenchment is healthy and to be exploited for longer term opportunities.

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Why Europe’s Market Correction is a Healthy One…

As European markets suffer the longest losing streak since November, the correction is a healthy one. The index is still up over 8% this year, despite many of the region’s problems remaining unsolved. The latest disappointment, a manufacturing industry contracting more than forecast, is merely the next knock in an overall shrinking group of countries. Just this month the European Central Bank reduced the outlook for growth this year to a 0.1% contraction, keeping the region in recession. As expressed by Tim Geitner in the US, Europe is “only at beginning of a very tough, very long, hard road”.

See this as a quick video clip on CNBC 

Italy struggles to free its labour market, essential to restore confidence and ease debt

Crucial for Italy to restore confidence in their markets and bring down hefty borrowing costs is the structural reform of its labour laws. The country’s growth has lagged the euro average for more than a decade and with unemployment at the highest level since 2001 (9.2%), the fear is they will be left further and further behind. Unfortunately, talks between government and union have failed to ease firing laws, which would stop older workers being protected to the detriment of the youth (suffering from a massive 30% unemployment rate) and encourage hiring. With elections early next year, the time for progress is running out.

Portuguese auction success shows investors convinced short term but long term concerns continue

Portugal, seen as the next card to fall after Greece, succeeded in auctioning 4 month bills at the lowest yield since late 2010. Demand for these bonds reached 7 times the amount on offer, implying investors were sufficiently confident on the short term outlook for the country. Nevertheless, long term bond yields remain elevated, with investors requiring 12.5% to lend to Italy for 10 years. With a 3.3% economic contraction expected this year, unemployment at 14.8% and strikes over pay, welfare cuts and tax hikes, the long-term outlook is yet to be rosy. The deepening slump has dampened deficit reduction, with the figures almost tripling in the first two months of this year. The fear is more rescue funds will eventually be needed.

ECB passing the baton: unwinding support for banks but had better move cautiously

Interestingly, despite the potential pitfalls, the ECB seems to be scaling back certain bond purchases. Prior to the recent Long-Term Refinancing Operations (LTRO), a measure to buy €40bn of bonds was set. Since then, only €9bn has been bought and the policy expected to last until autumn may be wound down sooner. This is understandable with LTRO, injecting a whopping €1tn of liquidity having made this ‘gesture’ obsolete. Furthermore, a member of the ECB has proclaimed that it “has done its part now governments must do theirs”. A move towards letting banks stand on their own two feet is the long-term strategy for stability, but with potential for risk to re-erupt, they had better step cautiously.

Europe – Lacking a Long-Term Solution

Over the last few days we have seen a tremendous amount of volatility in the markets, epitomising the lack of clarity with which many investors have struggled. The contagion continues to spread as we hear rumours of a possible downgrade of French government debt although it is far more likely to occur for Italy first. Fundamentally, there is a lack of a long-term solution and the knee-jerk reaction by some EU countries to ban short selling not only misses the point, it may negatively impact the very stocks it is trying to protect. So as we see movement to safe havens, we also see room for opportunistic buying – as long as you invest with those with strong balance sheets unlikely to be hit in future earnings downgrades and have a long enough time horizon to withstand the volatility.

Italy and France to be downgraded? The Contagion Continues to Spread

The markets are already betting for the ratings agencies to downgrade France’s debt with credit default swap spreads widening to double their level at the beginning of July. A rising expense to insure against default implies the market believes it to be more likely. However, Italy is the more likely downgrade candidate in the short-term. The reasons given behind Portugal’s downgrade a few months back apply equally to Italy – an unsustainable debt burden (Italy has the third largest in the word at €1.8tn) and a low likelihood of being able to repay these obligations (as it dips back into recession). The European Financial Stability Fund is losing its credibility since even its increase to €440bn is not enough to cover future potential bailouts and would need to amount to at least €2tn. The crux of the problem, as I’ve iterated before, is that you can’t solve the problem of debt with debt and austerity does not foster growth. Instead debt burdens are increasing at a faster rate than GDP growth in many western economies so the situation is only getting worse.

Outlook for banks: Headwinds for banks remain

European banks remain highly correlated to the future of the periphery. German banks, for example, have exposure to the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain) amounting to more than 18% of German GDP. Commerzbank revealed that a €760m write-down for Greek debt holdings wiped out their entire Q2 earnings. That’s before we look at France who have an even higher exposure and here in the UK, our banks have nearly £100bn exposed to struggling economies. Furthermore, these banks need to refinance maturing debt (at a rate of €5.4tn over the next 24 months) at higher rates and with demand shrinking.

Will the ban on short-selling help? No, it misses the point

The markets are concerned with government fiscal credibility not its regulatory might. Instead, the ban could increase volatility and negatively impact the very stocks it is trying to protect. ‘Shorting’ was acknowledged by the Committee for European Securities Regulators as beneficial for “price discovery, liquidity and risk management” just last year, so we may well see higher volatility than we would have without. Secondly, it limits fund ability to bet on financials going up. Hedge funds use shorts to remove market risk, buying shares in one bank and borrowing and selling shares in another. If they are forced to close these ‘borrowed’ positions, they will have to sell the other bank shares they have bought outright, causing further selling pressure and price falls. Most interesting was the timing of the implementation, just before an announcement was made that the Greek economy shrank by 7% in Q2 – fuelling fears the ban was needed since there’s more bad news to come.

How to trade these markets: Movement to safe haven offering opportunities

So how can you invest in these markets? A possible support to the stock markets is the ‘search for yield’. Sitting on cash can’t be satisfying for long, with rates as low as they are, and the dividend yield on the Eurostoxx is now double the 10 year German ‘bund’ yield. This means that even if markets go sideways, the return generated from holding European stocks could be more attractive than either if the other options. In addition, valuations are looking reasonable, at a near 8x forward earnings. Therefore we may see flows returning to the markets. However, be warned, we are starting to see earnings downgrades and volatility may remain. Therefore invest in companies with strong balance sheets and maintain a medium to longer-term time horizon.

How to Invest in These Markets

Click HERE to see Gemma Godfrey on CNBC\’s European Closing Bell

Gemma Godfrey, Chairman of the Investment Committee and Head of Research at Credo Capital, and John Authers of the Financial Times on CNBC’s European Closing Bell. Discussing how you should invest your money.

Join Guy Johnson and Louisa Bojesen for a fast-paced, dynamic wrap up to the trading day. “European Closing Bell” gives an in-depth analysis of the day’s market action and includes expert analysis from the major players in the European business and financial world.

Europe and a New Form of ‘Decoupling’ – How to React

The problem with international meetings is politicians are often “more interested in their next job than the next generation” – Anonymous source via Anthony Hilton, Evening Standard

Political turmoil has hit the three largest European economies in recent days. Portugal’s Prime Minister resigned, Merkel’s party was ousted from the most prosperous state in Germany after an almost 58 year uninterrupted rule and at France’s recent election, abstention reached a new high at 54% of the population. What are the main issues to be watching, how are they affecting investments and why is the term ‘decoupling’ now being used to describe countries within the EU?

Headline of Germany's biggest newspaper, Bild, 12 May 2010. Source: http://read.bi/cZa0of

Berlusconi ‘Flirting’ With Protectionism

In reaction to recent French takeovers of Italian companies, Italy is threatening to draft a bill to curtail the trend. France maintains the bill will go beyond measures conceived by Paris and tensions look to worsen as the French EDF, the largest shareholder of Italian energy company Edison prepares to replace the Italian CEO with a French counterpart.  Indeed with David Cameron concerned about maintaining an open and competitive continent, the issue is one to watch. Nevertheless, with a high savings rate and exposure to German and Emerging Market economies, the outlook for Italy remains strong. In a recent auction, the maximum amount of index-linked bonds targeted was sold on Tuesday, €6bn year to date. Domestic demand remains strong.

Spanish Growth Downgraded

Another European country with issues of its own and yet resilient market reaction is Spain. The Central Bank sees a growth outlook of 0.8% for this year, lower than the government’s expectation of 1.3% growth. Unemployment is still among the highest in Europe at ~20% and they are implementing some of the deepest austerity measures to bring their deficit inline with that of France. Nevertheless, markets are forward looking and are reacting well to the aggressive policy implementation. Spreads on Spanish bonds over the equivalent German versions continue to narrow.

Even more worrying is the 43% youth unemployment (as quoted in The Guardian), higher than both Egypt and Tunisia - leading Gregory White at The Business Insider to call Spain "The Next Egypt" http://read.bi/i7fKOu. Source of chart: Miguel Navascues, an economist who spent 30years for the Bank of Spain following a posting for the US http://bit.ly/fDGb6k

Germany Facing a ‘Blocking Majority’

After another disappointing election result, the governing party of Germany could face a ‘blocking majority’ if they lose one more state in the September elections. Inner-party opposition is looking likely to intensify and after abstaining in the UN’s vote on the ‘no fly zone’ over Libya, fears of a return to isolationism have returned. Together this could compound the indecision that has dogged Merkel’s leadership so far. Nevertheless, the country’s deficit is set to fall as low as 2.5% of GDP.

 

Equally applicable for France with their 54% abstention rate as to Germany's indecision - The once opinionated cocktail hour has gone quiet! Source: http://www.zundelsite.org/cartoons/german_party.html

A New ‘Decoupling’

Therefore, the markets are starting to differentiate between countries. Spanish and Italian equity markets are almost 9% higher than they were at the start of the year while others are still struggling.  Most interesting is the lacklustre return of Germany’s equity market despite stronger fundamentals. Although this can be explained by the idea that markets move not by information on an absolute basis but relative to past performance and most crucially – expectations. With this in mind, Italian and Spanish economies are seen to be improving and doing well versus investor-set benchmarks.

The Investment Insight

There are many more hurdles along the way. The yield on Portugal’s 5-year notes surpassed 9% for the first time since Bloomberg records began (1997). The average yield across maturities lies at 4%, but the trend is upwards and once a 6% level is reached, it is argued it will become near impossible to reduce the countries debt-to-GDP ratio. In the immediate future, today’s results of Ireland’s banking stress tests will reveal the additional capital required for adequate solvency. As always, it is wise to maintain context, exploit contagion to your benefit and focus on quality for the longer-term.

European “Financial Mechanisms” – Can they solve the EU’s problems? And how can I make money from the concern?

World unity is the wish of the hopeful, the goal of the idealist and the dream of the romantic. Yet it is folly to the realist and a lie to the innocent – Don Williams, Jr  (American , b.1968)

There has been much in the news lately on the outlook for the European Union. In May, Greece was offered €120bn in EU government and IMF loans over 3 years to replace the need for new borrowing at exorbitant market rates – the “first bailout of a Eurozone country and the biggest bailout of any country”.  Just last month Ireland joined the queue and received a €85bn injection plan. The flame of contagion was burning bright as investors worried Spain, Portugal and Italy were to follow suit quickly (The other members of the PIIGS acronym – and we’ve been advised what risks lie in an acronym!). Then just as markets calmed after the ECB staged their largest intervention and purchased mainly Portuguese and Irish bonds on Friday, the rating agency Moody’s announced it was downgrading Hungary’s debt by not one but two notches!  This country isn’t even in the periphery of the EU, it’s outside of it entirely… and so the contagion spreads….

Source: Bloomberg. The premium investors demand for investing in Irish government bonds over German bunds remains elevated (indicating a perceived heightened risk)

Why won’t the EU bailouts solve everything?

1. FLAWED LOGIC: attempting to solve the problem of debt with more debt

2. NOT SOLVING PROBLEM: without growth, the debt burden as a share of GDP will continue to rise. The latest European Financial Mechanism only covers maters until 2013,  if Debt/GDP has not reduced significantly then bond holders start sharing the pain

3. UNCERTAINTY: ministers keep changing their minds! (“no bail out” to “bailout”, “no pain for creditors” to “sharing the burden”) – markets don’t like uncertainty!

The key discrepancy –

What the ECB wants EU countries to do: Be prepared to increase the size of emergency bailouts, consolidate budgets and reform (implement austerity measures and assume national responsibility so the ECB can avoid being a bailout tool)

What EU country economies need: COMPETITIVENESS AND GROWTH

Market Impacts

  • YIELDS may have fallen sharply for some periphery debt but as the chart before shows, they remain at elevated levels.
  • FORCED SELLING – Pension funds, insurance cos and ETFs which are focused on matching the liabilities to their assets may have to sell certain debt when its credit rating is cut

How can you exploit this?

“Europe is difficult to understand for markets. They work in an irrational way sometimes,” Christine Lagarde, French economy minister

  1. Companies located in an EU periphery country, with strong balance sheets and demand insulated from worries about their homeland (i.e. international exposure and demand for their products from the east etc) making it a sound investment choice, may suffer from illogical moves in the markets that punish anything connected to the country regardless. This debt can be picked up cheaply.
  2. In addition, a downgrade in a country’s government debt may trigger a wave of forced sellers (the pension funds etc. mentioned above) that are restricted in holding this level of debt. If this is just an automatic trade, these distressed sellers may be exploited with the purchasing power in your hands