The classic “safe-haven” investment has seen a strong uptrend in its value since the autumn of 2008. Risk aversion, inflation fears, falls in the dollar and demand from the east have all been credited as drivers of this move. But just how supportive are these factors going forward — what is the risk gold could lose its lustre?
A Hedge against Inflation
The fear of inflation is heating up as on Wednesday the Bank of England suggested that “there is a good chance” inflation will hit 5% later in the year, far above the target rate of 2%. Elsewhere, on the same day, Chinese inflation figures surprised on the upside. However, is gold an adequate hedge? It can be shown graphically that it is not. Charting the inflation rate (CPI change year on year) against the gold price, we can see that over the past decade the relationship breaks down. Indeed, if the gold price kept up with increases in general price levels, it would be valued at $2,600 an ounce instead of around the $1,500 level. How about if instead of actual inflation, we look at the market’s expectation of inflation? Even in this case, the relationship does not hold. Instead, there are other factors at play. As previously discussed, investors may be more focused on the sustainability of the economic growth rate and allow for some inflation. Inflation alone may not provide sufficient support.
The Gold Price (white) vs. CPI change year-on-year (orange). Source: Bloomberg
A Beneficiary of Risk Aversion
So — could upcoming economic, fiscal or political disappointments sufficiently boost the gold price? Here the case looks stronger. From sovereign debt crises in Europe, to the tragic tsunami in Japan and the turmoil in the Middle East, there has been enough newsflow to stoke fears and flows into gold (a “whopping” $679m of capital was invested in precious metals in one week alone at the beginning of April). Furthermore, a lack of confidence in the dollar further boosted investment for those looking for a more reliable base.
Demand from the East and Central Banks
In addition to jewellery demand, central bank purchases may provide much support for gold as we move forward. Russia needs to acquire more than 1,000 tons and China 3,000 tons to have a gold reserve ratio to outstanding currency on parity with the U.S. This is even likely to be an understatement with China stating publicly they would like to acquire at least 6,000 tons and there are unofficial rumors that this may go as high as 10,000 tons.
A bubble with no clear end
George Soros described gold as the “ultimate asset bubble” and with sentiment driving the price as much as fundamentals, it’s unclear when the trend will reverse. An increasing monetary base is looking for a home. As Marcus Grubb, MD of Investment at the World Gold Council was quoted as saying at a ‘WealthBriefing’ Breakfast on Thursday: “In the next 10 minutes the world’s gold producers will mine $3m of gold, while the US prints $15m.” However, an often-overlooked drawback in investing in gold is its lack of yield. With some stock offering attractive dividend yields and investors wanting their investments to provide attractive returns during the life of their investment, capital flows may wander.
The Investment Insight
Remain wary of relying on one driver of returns; it can often be overshadowed by another. Instead build a complete picture and continuously question your base case scenario. Gold is a more complex asset than many give it credit for and as always, it pays to be well diversified.