markets

Why Europe Is Doing The ‘Ice Bucket Challenge’ With A Glass Of Water

‘Grand’ gestures with minimal effects, Europe is doing the ‘Ice Bucket Challenge’ with a glass of water. Measures won’t measure up to much. Little movement in interest rates, not enough assets to buy and ultimately – you can put out as many cream cakes as you’d like, but if people aren’t hungry, they aren’t going to eat. The pressure is rising and more is needed. Europe has become a ‘binary trade’, and it is important to invest in those set to benefit regardless.

(Click on the image below for a quick video clip summary)

cnbc FMHR Sept 2014

2 Measures That Won’t Measure Up To Much… (more…)

5 Things You Need To Know To Profit In Europe

Published on CNBC.com and broadcast on Squawk Box and Fast Money Halftime Report.

As an investor, misunderstandings and overreaction can offer some of the best opportunities to profit. Here 5 widely held beliefs are challenged and attractive investment strategies revealed: There is no need to fear deflation; The stock market trade has reversed; It’s not too late to join the (small cap) party; Central Bank action will not achieve its goal; Turmoil in Ukraine unlikely to directly impact earnings…

FMHR april

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From A Dog To A Darling: 5 Ways To Profit From Japan That Most Have Missed

From a dog to a darling, Japanese stocks have finally found favour. After returning 52% for investors last year, there are still 5 reasons this market has further to go, with opportunities most have missed. There is the potential for a catch up within the stock market, mispricing, earning growth, restructuring and increased buying. Sectors to benefit from reflation and growing domestic demand within a still unloved part of the market may profit.

[Click image below or this LINK to watch this as a TV Clip]Screen Shot 2014-01-10 at 14.33.03

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3 Ways Cyprus is a ‘Game Changer’ for Europe

Published on the Front Page of the Huffington Post Business

With strong words to support the Euro, Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank President, quelled fears over the future of the Eurozone. However, the bailout negotiations in Cyprus revealed cracks in this ‘floor’ supporting the region and markets. A ‘Banking Union’ has been undermined, imbalances within the region magnified and individual systematic risk returned. Divergences within the global banking sector will widen but with the Fed likely to remain accommodative, bullish market sentiment may continue to overshadow concerns elsewhere. Nevertheless, this recent turmoil has highlighted that we’re far from an end to the crisis.

[Click image below or this LINK to watch this as a TV Clip]

cnbc march 20 2013

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Quick Reminder of Europe’s Hidden Risk & Link To Quantum Physics

“The concern we have as investors is that there is a lot of risk out there that people aren’t really picking up on.  The fact that this bond buying program (“Outright Monetary Transactions”) is conditional means that it’s actually hard to police. How can you give a country that asks for help support, and then withdraw it and not expect the market to implode as a result…

“A physics quip to link to is Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle… the more you understand about a particle’s momentum, the less you know about its location. And you can say that about Europe. The more we understand about how fast things are deteriorating, the less we understand the full extent of how big the problem is.”

Gemma Godfrey, Head of Investment Strategy at Brooks Macdonald and CNBC’s ‘go to’ expert on Europe and financial markets, on Squawk Box October 2012.

Can Stock Markets Continue Their Recent Rally?

Published by the Guardian

Gemma Godfrey, head of investment strategy for wealth management firm Brooks Macdonald, argues that the small drop in US economic output shows investors may have got carried away in recent weeks.

She warns that the stock market rally may prove fragile:

As investors dismiss the economic contraction to focus on the resilience of consumption, they miss the risk that this will come under pressure over the coming months as fiscal cliff measures come into play.

Market rallies have been driven by the fear of an imminent risk receding, but growth is now needed for another leg up in markets. Instead, the ‘pain trade’ is now missing out on equity upside, implying fear of underperformance may be driving investment versus conviction in the outlook for markets going forward. Exemplifying this is the recent rotation by Hedge funds into financial stocks, following the positive earnings momentum, which of course is backward over-the-shoulder looking, rather than based on confidence in the future.

Published by CityAM

After hitting multi-year highs, can the FTSE 100 continue its recent rally?

NO – The FTSE 100 has been rallying as the fear of risks, like a Eurozone exit or fiscal cliff stalemate, has receded. But growth is now needed for another leg up: there has been relief in the diagnosis, but the patient must now show signs of recovery. The concern for the UK is that it is tough to see a possible source of growth, especially after the latest economic figures showed us courting a triple dip recession. Looking overseas – as many FTSE companies do ­– the outlook for growth is more encouraging. But troubles in Europe and the US are far from over, as the former grapples with fiscal and banking union, and the latter with delayed spending cut decisions. Equities may provide value over the longer term, but you will have to encounter heightened volatility – and a likely correction – in the immediate future.

The Headlines You Need To Know: The Future of European Banks – A Snapshot

What’s driving the price of European banking stocks? What does the future entail and what aren’t they telling us about a European Banking Union? All in under 1 minute…

Gemma Godfrey, Head of Investment Strategy at Brooks Macdonald, hosts Worldwide Exchange.