Investors are expecting an eventual reduction of support by the Fed, and Merkel winning the election this weekend. However, what stock markets have not priced in is the resurgence of Eurozone troubles into the headlines. So what are the options, why is this important and how will this effect markets?
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“United we stand; divided we fall” Aesop (Ancient Greek Fabulist and Author of a collection of Greek fables. 620 BC-560 BC)
The problem with the “EU” banner is that it links together economies that are quite different from each other. Much press has been dedicated to the fate of the PIIGS – Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain but it is interesting to compare journalistic exposure with economic impact. Greece Ireland and Portugal account for less than 5% of EU GDP. To save you shifting through pages of research – here are the key pertinent points for each economy… The structure follows that of my earlier assessment of the futility of EU bailout mechanisms–
FLAWED LOGIC – what are the real issues?
NOT SOLVING THE PROBLEM– will the economy in question be able to grow enough / will the debt burden be manageable enough so that it will fall as a % of GDP?
UNCERTAINTY – what are the political issues?
Source: "Belgium Joins The PIIGS: And Then They Were Six" - Gavan Nolan, Econotwist The Swapper - learning and understanding the increasingly complex financial world.
Portugal – A Disappointing Deficit, Dipping Back Into Recession
DISAPPOINTING DEFICIT and FOREIGN PRESSURE – Disappointed the market with its deficit reduction plan for this year, amounting to a value for the first 10 months of 2010 which was than for the whole of 2009 and forecasted to exceed the EU limit until at least 2012. Exposed to more foreign pressure with around 70% of its debt is held abroad
LOW GROWTH – estimated to only amount to 1.3% for 2010 for an economy expected to fall into recession next yr
POTENTIAL SOCIAL UNREST – planning to reduce its public workforce
Italy – Saved by its Savings, Economic Exposure but Debt Isolation
TOO BIG TO BAIL OUT – second largest debt burden after Greece (public debt equates to 120% of GDP)
HOWEVER: High savings rate, exposure to German and Emerging Market economies, less dependant on foreign creditors and therefore more flexible
Ireland – The Public Prefers a Default
HUGE BAILOUT – amounting to 60% of GDP vs. “only” 47% for Greece
POTENTIAL FOR DEFAULT – 57% of the public believe the country will not be able to support the annual interest payments involved with this debt burden (€5bn over 9 years) and would prefer the government to DEFAULT on its commitments
PROTEST and INTERNATIONAL IMPACT – 50,000 took to streets to protest against the Government’s plan to cut the budget deficit. The UK has £140bn exposure to Irish banks
SOLVENCY – It has been argued that the bailout package will only prevent Greece from insolvency for ~a year
CIVIL UNREST – has been seen in response to social program cutbacks
Spain – Pulling a “Sickie”
UNEMPLOYMENT and a potential for DEFAULT – the highest in the EU at around 20% of the population. A third of private sector debt (€0.6tn) was generated from the housing boom and liable to default.
INTEREST PAYMENTS HAVE JUMPED – Since Oct, yields have jumped from 4% to 5% leading to a larger debt burden as a percentage of GDP
SOCIAL UNREST – Just the other week we saw one of the largest “sickies” thrown by their air traffic workers
Hungary – The Government Can’t Win
Although not within the PIIGS acronym – it is important nonetheless to mention this economy at this point and a great example of the potential impacts to investment. It’s a case that highlights the Government can’t win – if it decides that instead of implementing austerity programs eliciting social unrest, it will instead employ more crowd-pleasing reforms, it will get punished nonetheless….
DOWNGRADED – Moody’s has downgraded its debt to the lowest investment grade status. One more downgrade and it changes classification and those restricted to investing in Investment Grade debt only will be forced to sell, regardless of any other factors. Great opportunity to pick up dent at a discount (whilst watching the quality of the issuer!)
REASON – Short term (less antagonistic) measures are not sustainable – special taxes and utilising private pension schemes to fill holes! The Government is relying on future growth to afford its pension liability in the future and anyone not transferring to a state pension by end Jan may lose 70% of their pension value.
Contrast with the Core
Just to contast these economies with the one seeming to be driving force behind the union – Germany’s deficit could potentially fall to the 3% EU limit next year
INVESTMENT INSIGHT: When investing in the EU – differentiate between countries!